In 1999, camera company Kodak held 27% of the U.S. photography market. But by 2007, they only held 7%, and two years later, they dropped their digital photography business entirely in bankruptcy. Many have ascribed this rapid loss of market share to Kodak’s inability to fully embrace the digital photography movement, which competitors Canon and Nikon used to their advantage.
At the Satellite 2025 conference, several members of a panel on constellation-building described this moment in the industry as a similar “Kodak moment.” Despite decades-long dominance over the satellite market, legacy GEO can’t afford to relax, and failure to innovate could hold long-lasting consequences for the industry as a whole.
“Despite decades-long dominance over the satellite market, legacy GEO can’t afford to relax, and failure to innovate could hold long-lasting consequences for the industry as a whole.”
LEO has taken over the satellite tech landscape. The recent rush to construct mega-constellations has reshaped the space supply chain, satellite manufacturing and supply processes, and has acted as an industry accelerator in the development of new tech. In the face of all this, legacy GEO operators are finding ways to face their “Kodak moment” and embrace new innovation—otherwise, they may risk being left behind in the new race to orbit.
“GEO remains the single most important orbit,” said Tom Mueller, CEO of Impulse Space, during a keynote address at Satellite 2025. While the lower-orbit constellations are taking most of the headlines, GEO is still the cheapest way to move through space in price per bit. And while LEO can support lower latency requirements, GEO provides the coverage and uncontended bandwidth that are essential to many enterprises and end user applications.
Large, established companies like the legacy GEO players can sometimes kill innovative thinking due to inertia. But with everything in the industry working on a faster and larger scale, legacy GEO must adapt to a new ecosystem—one driven by the young players in the low orbits that are building quickly on a global scale.
Constellation-Building Has Changed the Game
“Working on constellations is an accelerator to success,” said Mike Greenley, CEO of MDA Space, during a panel on constellation-building at Satellite 2025. MDA Space, which works in the satellite manufacturing business, has benefited from accelerated growth and demand from operators building out large LEO constellations. The move towards constellation-building, rather than building and launching discrete satellites, has driven a transition towards standardization across design and manufacturing, while also encouraging new innovation and engineering. “It accelerates growth, and it develops a large product base for other projects that aren’t constellations,” he explained. In this way, manufacturing processes may shift to be constellation-first and individual satellite second.
Standardization has become the name of the game. “The enthusiasm for uniqueness is eroding,” said Greenley, and noted that there are 80% commonalities between customers looking for a satellite manufacturer. “People are quick to adapt to a more standard product,” he added. With launch getting cheaper, and with satellites becoming standardized, LEO has never been more accessible to any innovative new start-up hoping to make a splash.
“The enthusiasm for uniqueness is eroding… People are quick to adapt to a more standard product.” - Mike Greenley, CEO of MDA Space
“We want customers to come to standardization,” said Debra Facktor, head of U.S. Space Systems at Airbus U.S. Space & Defense, during the panel. Standardization lowers prices and simplifies and streamlines the supply chain.
This transition has changed the entire shape of orbital access and presence. Constellation building has made more infrastructure in space possible, but it also puts the legacy GEO operators in jeopardy as they scramble to compete with LEO tech that is small, modular, cheap, and fast.
“This is high value, large scale production,” said Facktor. The new focus on LEO has led to rapid strides in modularity, miniaturization, comms and Earth Observation. It also embraces innovation from other industries, such as new mechanical techniques and high-volume manufacturing production.
Governments across the world have also begun to shift their attention to LEO constellations as a way to enhance national security and guarantee communication and connectivity, or as a way to back up vulnerable systems like GPS/GNSS, which have lived in GEO for decades.
Life in a LEO-first Satellite Industry
“Good quality, good price, and the ability to scale is now the new criteria,” said Greenley. “You’re not just assessing the tech and the price, you’re assessing the business… there’s an additional layer of conversation there in procurement.”
Some technologies were initially designed for LEO but have begun to make their way into the GEO market. Small and miniature satellites, for example, have become a staple payload of LEO launches, but are now finding a new home in GEO, as evidenced by projects like Astranis’ four MicroGEO satellites that launched late last year. “Some companies are already looking in small GEO, in order to standardize more,” said Facktor.
While technology might begin to make its way from the LEO market into the GEO market, there are inherent challenges in trying to make this transition, and legacy operators won’t be able to rely on simply adapting LEO-ready tech to the GEO environment.
For example, anything that flies in GEO must have a much higher tolerance for radiation, and satellite tech designed for LEO will be significantly less sturdy. “It’s the number one thing that comes up,” said Facktor in an interview with Constellations. “How long is the satellite going to last?”
Other solutions might include leveraging investments already made, suggested Facktor. “Anytime you can reuse, that’s a good thing,” she said. Many legacy operators are also looking into building tech that can work with multiple orbits. Imagine, for example, “a mesh network that can communicate with any orbit,” Facktor suggested. “They might set it up as LEO, but it’s designed so you could talk to any orbit. So what is introduced in LEO can play with GEO, or vice versa.”
Several industry experts have also urged legacy GEO operators to work directly with start-ups, which have greater ability to innovate widely. If a legacy operator wants to onboard a new technology, for example, one option may be to work “with a startup that is actually working in that space—they will do it better,” said Karen Florschütz, Head of Connected Intelligence at Airbus Space and Defence, during a panel at Satellite. These kinds of partnerships allow large operators to “find what’s driving technologies, and to determine which areas we actually want to pursue,” she added.
These kinds of partnerships may give legacy operators the edge they need to stay competitive. “I’m a fan of don’t reinvent the wheel, steal with pride from somebody else,” said Florschütz. “Build your ecosystem and your partnerships.”
“I’m a fan of don’t reinvent the wheel, steal with pride from somebody else. Build your ecosystem and your partnerships.” - Karen Florschütz, Head of Connected Intelligence at Airbus Space and Defence
To retain their market, GEO operators will need to resist the urge to let their existing technology be good enough. Partnerships with smaller companies and start-ups will also give a clearer view of the market, what is currently being developed, and what is being funded and envisioned for five or 10 years down the line.
At the end of the day, collaboration will be key. “We are past the point of the not-invented-here syndrome,” said Karim Sabbagh, Managing Director of Space42, during a Satellite 2025 panel. GEO operators who are willing to use the best available technology and seek out industry partnerships will be better equipped to handle life in what may eventually become a LEO-first satellite industry.
The satellite industry will certainly continue to expand in the next decade. “There’s still room for more mega-constellations in the market —I think there’s always room for mega constellations,” said Florschütz. The real question becomes how legacy GEO will go about holding onto their spot, too.
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